A Closer Look at Player Pricing and the Events that Effect their Value

FIFA Market Trends

Players are expensive at the start of the game. Players are cheap at the end of the game. For those of us that have played Ultimate Team for the over 10 years it has been a game mode, that much is clear. And FIFA 21 was no exception.

The reason? A quick economics lesson on the principles of supply and demand will tell you. When FIFA releases in September, there are few cards on the market (low supply) compared to the high volume of players that want to play the game (high demand). Therefore, player prices are through the roof.

However, as time goes on more packs are opened. An increase in supply occurs. Where we had a low supply before, we now have a medium/high supply and medium/high demand.

Now May comes, along with it TOTS. The supply of cards on the market is at a peak, and demand for playing Ultimate Team is dwindling with the approaching summer and conclusion of any major FIFA events. Many FIFA players stop playing, and with that prices plummet to even further lows. Where we began on the left side of the graph, now we fall on the right.

FIFA Events

While this is how the FIFA market looks over the long-term, Ultimate Team events cause short-term deviations that present opportunities for investing. Knowing the events of the Ultimate Team calendar will help you to predict and take advantage of these changes in the FIFA market.

FIFA 21 Events

FIFA 22 Events (some dates tentative)

*check the FIFA Calendar for a full list of events*

September 22nd – Web App Release

Rejoice! A new season of FIFA begins. One of the first ways you can access the game is through the web app. Through this, you will be able to buy/sell players, purchase packs, and receive daily rewards for logging in. NOTE: you will only be able to do use the web app if you have already set up an account in some previous FIFA.

In addition to the web app, a 10 hour EA Access period grants Xbox and PS4 the option to experience FIFA 22 in its entirety. For traders, the entirety of this trial should be devoted to Ultimate Team. There are a few ways that you can approach this.

First and foremost, sell all of the items in your catalog. Coins are in short supply at the beginning of FUT, and this is one of the easiest ways to stockpile them.

In addition, make sure to activate your coin boosts as these can earn you an extra 250-1000 coins per completed game. How you choose to play these games depends on your abilities as a FIFA player.

For more skilled players, draft is a great option. Yes, you have to spend 15,000 coins or FIFA points to play. However, the potential packs for winning a few games will more than cover your costs. In reality, if you win the draft mode you are looking at getting at least 50k and possibly much, much more. Offline draft mode is alternative if you would rather play AI instead.

September 28th – Early Access Release

For those who purchase the Ultimate or Champions version of FIFA 22, you will have a 3 day jump on everyone else to play the game. These early stages of the game are huge for establishing a coin base, so the sooner you can jump in the better.

October 1st – Full Release

When the game is fully released, the demand for players begins to increase dramatically. Therefore, prices increase as well. Be sure to invest your coins gained through the early access period in players – particularly OTW or TOTW 2 gold cards – before the full release to make profits. If FIFA 18, 19, 20, and 21 are any representation, the players reach their peak about 2 weeks after the release. For FIFA 22, this would mean ~ October 15th.

October 15th/22nd – Rulebreakers

While EA had released 1 week promos in the past, FIFA 20 marked the first year they ran promos over 2 weeks. Ultimate Scream was the first promotion we saw this for, and we would continue to see it later in the year as well. I expect more of the same in FIFA 22, both for Rulebreakers and OTW that precedes it (released on October 1st).

November 26th/29th – Black Friday/Cyber Monday

For the first time in the FIFA season, players have the opportunity to buy expensive packs valued at 50k, 100k, and 200k. For an investor, this weekend is Christmas come early.

All of these packs mean one thing: a drastic increase in supply, and consequently excellent opportunities for players to be bought for great prices.

In FIFA 21, the best looks for investment were high rated TOTW players that came from good nations and leagues (useful for SBCs). Look to buy them during lighting rounds via bid or snipe to get the best deals.

In FIFA 22, anticipate on investing in something similar – a high rated inform from a good league and nation that is near discard.

December 3rd – Team of the Group Stage

An event that often catches players by surprise, be sure to prepare yourself for the Team of the Group Stage. This is the first time that an abundance of quality players are in packs, and as a result many packs are opened. Again, packs mean supply, and supply means the market takes a hit.

December 10th – Freeze

FUTMAS was replaced by FUT Freeze in FIFA 21. The event was still similar, though, with daily SBCs of featured players along with a full Freeze team released.

December 31st/January 7th – Headliners

Headliners can be best described as midseason TOTS cards. However, where TOTS cards statistics are static, Headliners are dynamic items that upgrade just as OTW cards do.

Four consecutive league wins granted these players an additional upgrade as well.

January 21st – TOTY Release

The best players from the previous year are released in four phases: defenders, midfielders, attackers, and then the full squad. In FIFA 21, the attackers came out on Friday, midfielders on Sunday, defenders on Tuesday, and the full squad on Thursday. We will see if that trend continues for FIFA 22.

February 4th/11th – Future FUT Stars

A promo that began in FIFA 19, this event is described on the EA website as follows:

“The brightest young prospects in football now have massive ratings boosts reflecting their potential to become the best in the world. Build a new generation of talent into your FUT 20 squad now with the Future Stars!”

February 25th/March 4th – What If

The “What If” promo was new for FIFA 21. Similar to Headliners, these cards were upgraded for in-game performances based on clean sheets for defenders/keepers and goals for midfielders/attackers.

March 25th/April 1st – FUT Birthday

A consistent FIFA promo throughout the years, EA added Skill Move and Weak Foot upgrades starting in FIFA 20 for FUT Bday.

May ? – First TOTS Release
EA tends to follow a pattern with the leagues they release for Team of the Season. The following was the order from FIFA 21:
  • April 23th – Community/EFL TOTS
  • April 30th – PL TOTS
  • May 3rd – Saudi TOTS
  • May 7th – La Liga TOTS
  • May 10th – Super Lig TOTS
  • May 14th – BuLi TOTS
  • May 17th – Liga NOS TOTS
  • May 21st – Serie A TOTS
  • May 24th – Eredivisie TOTS
  • May 28h – Ligue 1 TOTS
  • May 31st – RoW/MLS TOTS
  • June 4th – Ultimate TOTS

In addition, SBCs are released along with these in which you can get an untradeable version of a TOTS player as a reward.