A Closer Look at Player Pricing and the Events that Effect their Value

FIFA Market Trends

Players are expensive at the start of the game. Players are cheap at the end of the game. For those of us that have played Ultimate Team for the over 10 years it has been a game mode, that much is clear. And FIFA 22 was no exception.

The reason? A quick economics lesson on the principles of supply and demand will tell you. When FIFA releases in September, there are few cards on the market (low supply) compared to the high volume of players that want to play the game (high demand). Therefore, player prices are through the roof.

However, as time goes on more packs are opened. An increase in supply occurs. Where we had a low supply before, we now have a medium/high supply and medium/high demand.

Now May comes, along with it TOTS. The supply of cards on the market is at a peak, and demand for playing Ultimate Team is dwindling with the approaching summer and conclusion of any major FIFA events. Many FIFA players stop playing, and with that prices plummet to even further lows. Where we began on the left side of the graph, now we fall on the right.

FIFA Events

While this is how the FIFA market looks over the long-term, Ultimate Team events cause short-term deviations that present opportunities for investing. Knowing the events of the Ultimate Team calendar will help you to predict and take advantage of these changes in the FIFA market.

FIFA 22 Events

FIFA 23 Events (some dates tentative)

*check the FIFA Calendar for a full list of events*

September 21st – Web App Release

Rejoice! A new season of FIFA begins. One of the first ways you can access the game is through the web app. Through this, you will be able to buy/sell players, purchase packs, and receive daily rewards for logging in. NOTE: you will only be able to do use the web app if you have already set up an account in some previous FIFA.

In addition to the web app, a 10 hour EA Access period grants Xbox and PS4 the option to experience FIFA 23 in its entirety. For traders, the entirety of this trial should be devoted to Ultimate Team. There are a few ways that you can approach this.

First and foremost, sell all of the items in your catalog. Coins are in short supply at the beginning of FUT, and this is one of the easiest ways to stockpile them.

In addition, make sure to activate your coin boosts as these can earn you an extra 250-1000 coins per completed game. How you choose to play these games depends on your abilities as a FIFA player.

For more skilled players, draft is a great option. Yes, you have to spend 15,000 coins or FIFA points to play. However, the potential packs for winning a few games will more than cover your costs. In reality, if you win the draft mode you are looking at getting at least 50k and possibly much, much more. Offline draft mode is alternative if you would rather play AI instead.

September 27th – Early Access Release

For those who purchase the Ultimate or Champions version of FIFA 23, you will have a 3 day jump on everyone else to play the game. These early stages of the game are huge for establishing a coin base, so the sooner you can jump in the better.

September 30th – Full Release

When the game is fully released, the demand for players begins to increase dramatically. Therefore, prices increase as well. Be sure to invest your coins gained through the early access period in players – particularly OTW or TOTW 2 gold cards – before the full release to make profits. If FIFA 18, 19, 20, 21, and 22 are any representation, the players reach their peak about 2 weeks after the release. For FIFA 23, this would mean ~ October 14th.

October 14th – RTTK

Similar to OTW, expect the RTTK to be released in 2 teams when it drops. Live card investments like RTTK are quite risky, and typically the juice isn’t worth the squeeze (unless you choose to sell in the hype).

November 25th – Black Friday

For the first time in the FIFA season, players have the opportunity to buy expensive packs valued at 50k, 100k, and 200k. For an investor, this weekend is Christmas come early.

All of these packs mean one thing: a drastic increase in supply, and consequently excellent opportunities for players to be bought for great prices.

In FIFA 22, both fodder (83s & 84s) and usable players presented great looks for investment (such as IF Theo Hernandez & IF Goretzka from the Best of TOTW).

For FIFA 23, anticipate on investing in something similar. For lower budgets, fodder are a solid look, and for higher budgets players in the Best of TOTW present a good opportunity.

December 3rd – Team of the Group Stage

An event that often catches players by surprise, be sure to prepare yourself for the Team of the Group Stage. This is the first time that an abundance of quality players are in packs, and as a result many packs are opened. Again, packs mean supply, and supply means the market takes a hit.

December 30th – Headliners

Headliners can be best described as midseason TOTS cards. However, where TOTS cards statistics are static, Headliners are dynamic items that upgrade just as OTW cards do.

Four consecutive league wins granted these players an additional upgrade as well.

January 20th – TOTY Release

The best players from the previous year are released in four phases: defenders, midfielders, attackers, and then the full squad. In FIFA 22, the attackers came out on Friday, midfielders on Sunday, defenders on Tuesday, and the full squad on Thursday. We will see if that trend continues for FIFA 23.

February 3rd – Future FUT Stars

A promo that began in FIFA 19, this event is described on the EA website as follows:

“The brightest young prospects in football now have massive ratings boosts reflecting their potential to become the best in the world. Build a new generation of talent into your FUT 20 squad now with the Future Stars!”

March 3rd – FUT Birthday

A consistent FIFA promo throughout the years, EA added Skill Move and Weak Foot upgrades starting in FIFA 20 for FUT Bday, and this has been a theme for the past few years.

April ? – First TOTS Release
EA tends to follow a pattern with the leagues they release for Team of the Season. The following was the order from FIFA 22:
  • April 29th – Community/Eredivisie TOTS
  • May 6th – PL TOTS
  • May 8th – EFL TOTS
  • May 13th – BuLi TOTS
  • May 15th – Saudi TOTS
  • May 20th – La Liga TOTS
  • May 22nd – Liga NOS TOTS
  • May 27th – Ligue 1 TOTS
  • May 29th – Belgium/Super Lig TOTS
  • June 3rd – Serie A TOTS
  • June 5th – RoW/MLS TOTS
  • June 10th – Ultimate TOTS
  • June 12th – CONMEBOL TOTS

In addition, SBCs are released along with these in which you can get an untradeable version of a TOTS player as a reward.