Preparing for Black Friday: When to Buy and Sell
We are less than 3 weeks away from one of the biggest events of the FUT calendar: Black Friday. Here is what you need to know, and what you should do, in preparation for November 24th.
Before Black Friday
Shown below are graphs of the market from FIFA 17. Focusing on the month of November, you’ll notice the market declines leading up to Thanksgiving. While it can’t be certain that the FIFA 18 market will imitate last years trends, it is highly likely.
FIFA 17 Market (Xbox)
FIFA 18 Market (Xbox)
Right now, the FIFA 18 market is hovering around an index value of 80. At the same point last year, it had a value of 75 before bottoming out at 60 the week of the event. Again, there are no guarantees with the Black Friday market, but my money is on the fact that the next couple weeks will see a similar decline.
My advice? Sell your expensive players and liquidate your assets this Thursday/Friday. Prices over the week cycle tend to be highest at this time, and having these coins will allow you invest during the big event.
Furthermore, I wouldn’t recommend making any big investments over the next couple weeks. The market during this period is too unpredictable, and a volatile market is not something I’m interested in betting on. If you are looking to make coins, you can still make low-risk investments in cheap 83s/84s, marquee matchups, or discard informs. These could come in handy during Black Friday SBCs.
During Black Friday
Buy, buy, buy. With lightning rounds every hour on the hour, the supply will greatly outweigh the demand on November 24th. Tons of cards will hit the market all at once, and you will be able to get some great deals on bid or BIN.
So the real question is, who should you buy? That is hard to say now because we have to wait and see how much individual player prices drop from now until then. However, I can give you some options for players to keep an eye on between now and then (all these options will have the opportunity to be packed during the event, further decreasing their prices and giving you opportunities to win them for deals on bid or snipe).
Popular Weekend League Players
High Rated Discard Informs (From TOTW 10)
Naturally, we still don’t know who will be in TOTW 10 this year. Here are some players from FIFA 17 that were were on the team last year.
After Black Friday
Each year, the market rebounds following the Black Friday/Cyber Monday. Here is how the prices of these popular weekend league and TOTW 10 players fared 1 week following the event from FIFA 17.
Popular Weekend League Players
High Rated Discard Informs (From TOTW 10)
It is impossible to say when the market will bottom out for the Black Friday event and when the prices will rebound to their highs. However, if you buy these players on Friday, November 24th and sell on Friday, December 1st, I think you will be in the money.
Cheers,
Chief
I have a million coins, so i should buy griezmanns, boatengs etc with all my money and sell them in december?
Yes, but I’d spread your investments. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket with one player. Look to buy some TOTW 10 Informs, popular WL players, and some high rated players as well.
Thanks!
Do OTW cards apply to this method as well?
They might, but it depends how much they drop. I like the players I mentioned because they will be packed during Black Friday lightning rounds; OTW players won’t be in packs during this time, so they might not see the same decrease as they won’t flood the market in the same way.
I will try to get rid of everything on my transfer list including OTWs and IFs this coming weekend and will only focus on the Rome and Madrid derbies for the next MMs. I look forward to your predictions and insights for these games.
Do i sell my Cristiano Ronaldo?
Yes, I think he will keep decreasing in price over the next couple weeks.
Hi Chief, Just wanted to say you’ve got an awesome page, and that you should keep up the good work. I have some investment queries for Black Friday, and i was hoping if you could help me out with. I have 600k in total, and I want to split it into 400k:200k, 400k for investing, and 200k for building my elite team. With my 400k, I’m interested in two different investment methods I was hoping you could voice your opinion on. Investment method 1: Buy Jesus (which I’m favouring more because of an upcoming City POTM SBC) or Bailly for 25k, and then sell back on the rebound for 50k (do you think their rebound prices will be 50k?) With this method, I would make (25000-1250)*16= 380k profit, which is what I’m aiming for. However, the rebound prices are my concern, which is why I came up with a second method Investment method 2: Buying 87CB icon Desailly for 550k, and then selling him for 850k rebound price (I think this will be his rebound price because he rose up by 300k after Black Friday last year as well, and he has very good pace and phy for a CB).… Read more »
I understand why you would be interested in investing in Bailey and Jesus. They are popular weekend league players that people are sure to use. I think you have lofty expectations with how much they are going to fall and rebound, though. Both players are hovering around 40k right now. While I could potentially see them falling to 25k, I don’t think there is much of a chance they rise back up to 50k. That being said, I still do think they will rebound nicely, but more to the 35k-40k range. Also, I’m unsure what your justification of Jesus tied to POTM is. If it is because you think they will require a Man City squad, there is no reason people would need to use Jesus; he doesn’t have a great rating and is already expensive as it is. There are cheaper alternatives. Pertaining to the icons, I’m unsure of specifically who will best the investment, but I can say that they will be a good investment overall. As more Icon SBC’s are released and people start to build their “Dream Teams” that include icons, more and more will leave the market, thus limiting supply and increasing their price. Hope… Read more »
Thanks chief. What are your thoughts son investing on scream cards, especially BPL scream cards. They might be needed for the POTM SBC, right?
I’m not sure if they will be required for a POTM SBC, but I do think they will be required for a particular SBC at some point.
However, with Black Friday on the horizon it is tough to say how much further their prices will fall. If you are looking at cheap players who have bottomed out like Van Damme, I don’t see much risk there. If you are looking at buying more expensive players like Perisic or Sturridge, be weary that they could continue to drop.
I’m looking to get them at cheapest possible price. Bought two Sturridge’s for32k (going for 36. could drop more) to test the waters for tomorrow’s possible POTM SBC. Also, Modric was 90k, then he dropped to 65k for two days, and now he’s at 79k. Varane also dropped by 5k then increased back to original price. Do you think that this is just their price fluctuating, and that on Black Friday their prices will fall down even more, or was this a chance missed to grab these players. I think it’s the former. Just wanted to know your thoughts.
Thanks chief.
Definitely think this is only price fluctuation. We are still more than 2 weeks away from Black Friday – I find it hard to believe the market has bottomed out already.
Hi chief , icons players have rebound during the black friday ? I have shevchenko and i don want to lose many coins
I think his price will continue to decrease into Black Friday. I’d monitor his price over the next week and sell when it is high. If you want to buy back, do it around the Black Friday weekend, and his price should rebound from their nicely.
Hi, I have 800k currently and I’m planning on selling, do you think it would be good to invest in players and then sell the coins after Black Friday, or sell now?
I’m a bit confused by your question. Can you rephrase it?
I have 750k+ coins on Fifa. Is it better to sell them right now to an supplier online, or to invest during Black Friday and then sell?
Probably better to invest during Black Friday.